SHS Research maintains an POSITIVE rating on DPM, with a target price of VND 31,200/share, upside 10%, along with the following updates:

• Net revenue in Q2/2025 reached VND 5,301 billion, +34,3% YoY; +28,7% QoQ driven by the peak fertilizer season and significant increases in product prices: urea prices rose 16% YoY and NPK prices increased 3% YoY. Gross profit and net profit rose sharply, to VND 896.9 billion (+64.6% YoY) and VND 413.2 billion (+75% YoY), respectively. The strong margin improvement in Q2 2025 was driven by easing input gas prices, which are expected to remain low in H2 2025 as DPM signs a new contract with GAS, further supporting the company’s profitability.

• In the first six months of 2025, DPM recorded net revenue of VND 9,421 billion (+30% YoY), completing 73% of its annual target. Pre-tax profit reached VND 754.6 billion (+30% YoY), achieving 184% of the full-year plan, while net profit came in at VND 624.2 billion (+24% YoY), fulfilling 195% of target.

Outlook:

• 5% VAT on fertilizers enhances competitiveness against imports while improving corporate profit margins.

• Input material prices are expected to remain low, while fertilizer demand and prices are projected to stay at elevated levels in H2 2025.

• On August 8, 2025, DPM finalized the list of shareholders for issuing shares to increase charter capital from the development investment fund, at a ratio of over 73.7%.

• Revenue in 2025 is projected at VND 14,127.6 billion (+4.7% YoY), with net profit of VND 1,103.6 billion (+81% YoY) and EPS of VND 1,599/share, equivalent to a forward P/E of 19.5x.

RISK

• Systemic risk: volatility in input material prices and output product prices.

• Operational risks: (1) competition risk, (2) operational risk: DPM will conduct a full maintenance shutdown in Q4 2025, with 2025 volume estimated to -3% YoY; (3) environmental risk.