MORE POSITIVE THAN EXPECTED

We maintains Overweight recommendation on HPG stock, raising 12-month target price to VND 31,000 per share, implying an upside of 23.2% compared to the closing price on August 1st 2025 based on the following key investment thesis:

• Positive Steel Consumption driven by rising domestic demand and government protectionist policies. Sales volume in Q2 increased +10% QoQ, and +17.7% YoY over the first six months. Major product lines posted strong growth: HRC (+41.6% YoY), steel pipes (+26% YoY), and construction steel (+22% YoY). HPG continues to lead the market in construction steel and gain market share in steel pipes.
• Agriculture segment recorded a surge of +38.2% YoY in revenue and +130% YoY in profit in the first six months, supported by favorable pork prices.
• Revenue for H1 2025 reached VND 73,532 billion (+4.4% YoY), achieving 49% of the full-year plan. Net profit after tax hit VND 7,614 billion (+23% YoY), completing 50.7% of the annual target. Gross profit margin in Q2 was 18.4%, the highest since Q1/2022.
• Dung Quat 2 Project is on track, with Blast Furnace No.2 scheduled to start operations in October 2025. The blast furnace incident at Dung Quat Integrated Complex 1 has been resolved and resumed operations in August 2025, supporting HPG’s production recovery and sales performance in H2 2025.
• The rail production plant project, expected to begin operations by 2027, will offer HPG a strategic advantage in supplying materials for Vietnam’s proposed high-speed rail and other railway infrastructure projects.
• 2025 projected revenue is VND 160,870 billion (+16% YoY), with net profit after tax of VND 15,630 billion (+29.2% YoY), and EPS of VND 2,255 per share.