FERTILIZER INDUSTRY REPORT

An essential sector at the intersection of food security and global competition

In 2025, global fertilizer industry is witnessing a strong recovery following a period of major disruptions driven by geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, and raw material price volatility. After peaking in 2021–2022, fertilizer demand entered a subdued phase during 2023–2024. However, consumption is now on a recovery trajectory in 2025, supported by: (i) improved farmer affordability as fertilizer prices fell sharply from mid-2023, (ii) renewed prioritization of food security in many countries, particularly in Asia, and (iii) stronger policy support for agricultural production.

On the supply side, global output has yet to expand significantly and continues to be affected by export restrictions in key producing countries such as China, Russia, and Egypt—creating new bottlenecks in the global supply chain.

On the pricing front, global fertilizer markets are still trading at relatively affordable levels, though significant price increases have been recorded for potash and DAP. Key factors such as sustained low energy prices, escalating US–China trade tensions, EU tariff policies on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East are all exerting considerable influence on the fertilizer price outlook for 2025–2026. These dynamics require investors and industry players to remain agile, continuously monitor global developments, and adapt their business strategies accordingly.

In Vietnam, the fertilizer market continues to play a critical role in ensuring crop productivity—particularly in a context where agricultural commodity prices, especially rice, have remained favorable, thereby improving farmers’ input affordability. Nonetheless, the sector faces persistent challenges, including a high dependency on imported raw materials such as potash, sulfur, and ammonia; supply–demand imbalances across product categories; and declining profit margins due to export tariffs and intensifying regional competition. In the first half of 2025, domestic fertilizer production increased by 11.7% YoY, while exports surged by 24.3% YoY. Imports also rose sharply in response to peak-season demand. Domestic fertilizer prices mirrored the global upward trend, with urea rising by 10% YoY, potash by 30%, and DAP by 25%.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the fertilizer industry from global to domestic perspectives, including:

·         Macroeconomic backdrop and key factors influencing global fertilizer supply and demand

·         Price movements and international trade policies related to fertilizers

·      Vietnam market overview: production structure, imports, consumption, and domestic pricing trends

·     In-depth analysis of leading listed companies like: DCM, DPM, DGC, and DDV, covering operational performance, earnings outlook, stock valuation, and key investment risk.

SHS Research hopes this report will serve as a valuable reference for investors, businesses, and other stakeholders, offering deeper and more strategic insights into the fertilizer industry for the second half of 2025 and beyond.